第1章引言 ·····································································1

1.1 "现代丝绸之路"交通基础设施建设问题的缘由 ···········2

1.2 研究交通基础设施建设的意义 ···········································6

1.2.1 理论意义 ·············································································6

1.2.2 现实意义 ·············································································8

1.3 篇章安排 ···············································································9

1.3.1 研究思路 ·············································································9

1.3.2 篇章结构 ···········································································10

第2章"丝绸之路"新旧解读······································13

2.1 引言 ·····················································································14

2.2 起源：古代丝绸之路 ·························································14

2.3 发展：现代丝绸之路 ·························································16

2.4 "现代丝绸之路"的提出背景 ·········································19

2.5 "现代丝绸之路"的本质 ·················································23

2.6 "现代丝绸之路"的重要基础：交通基础设施 ·············27

2.7 本章小结 ·············································································31

第3章我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施现状分析

与综合评价 ························································33

3.1 引言 ·····················································································34

3.2 三省两区交通基础设施现状 ·············································34

3.1.1 陕西··················································································· 37

3.1.2 甘肃··················································································· 41

3.1.3 青海··················································································· 46

3.1.4 宁夏··················································································· 50

3.1.5 新疆··················································································· 54

3.3 三省两区现有交通基础设施评价 ·····································58

3.4 本章小结 ·············································································59

第4章我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施规划目标··· 61

4.1 引言 ·····················································································62

4.2 三省两区的规划目标 ·························································63

4.2.1 陕西··················································································· 64

4.2.2 甘肃··················································································· 65

4.2.3 青海··················································································· 67

4.2.4 宁夏··················································································· 69

4.2.5 新疆··················································································· 71

4.3 本章小结 ·············································································74

第5章我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施规划········· 77

5.1 引言 ·····················································································78

5.2 影响交通基础设施规划的因素分析 ·································78

5.2.1 社会经济发展水平··························································· 79

5.2.2 交通运输需求··································································· 79

5.2.3 自然条件··········································································· 80

5.2.4 技术条件··········································································· 81

5.2.5 建设资金及发展政策······················································· 81

5.2.6 环保问题·········································································· 82

5.2.7 现有交通基础设施··························································· 82

5.3 交通基础设施规划的方法及工具 ·····································83

5.3.1 交通基础设施规划的基本步骤······································· 83

5.3.2 基于交通基础设施规划流程的具体方法和工具简介··· 85

5.4 交通规划方案评价 ·····························································93

5.5 三省两区现有公路与铁路规划方案及优化 ·····················95

5.5.1 三省两区现有"十三五"交通规划方案······················· 95

5.5.2 三省两区铁路及公路规划方案优化······························· 98

5.6 本章小结 ···········································································117

第6章交通基础设施投资成本测算······························119

6.1 引言 ···················································································120

6.2 交通基础设施成本测算方法及适用性分析 ···················121

6.2.1 工程项目投资成本测算的基本内容····························· 121

6.2.2 工程项目投资成本估算的基本方法····························· 122

6.3 三省两区整体规划方案投资成本测算 ···························138

6.3.1 铁路投资成本估算························································· 139

6.3.2 公路投资成本估算························································· 145

6.4 本章小结 ···········································································150

第7章交通基础设施投资的经济效应研究·················· 153

7.1 引言 ···················································································154

7.1.1 推动国家经济的增长····················································· 154

7.1.2 促进我国区域间协调发展············································· 155

7.1.3 加强国际间合作交流····················································· 156

7.2 相关的基础理论 ·······························································157

7.2.1 古典主义········································································· 157

7.2.2 凯恩斯主义····································································· 158

7.2.3 发展经济学····································································· 158

7.2.4 新经济增长理论····························································· 159

7.2.5 新经济地理学································································· 160

7.3

交通基础设施与经济增长的互动机制···························160

7.4

交通基础设施投资的经济效应研究·······························162

7.4.1 交通基础设施与经济增长的关系································· 163

7.4.2 交通基础设施的空间溢出效应····································· 177

7.4.3 交通基础设施对产业聚集的影响································· 186

7.4.4 交通基础设施对区域贸易的影响································· 194

7.4.5 交通基础设施建设对产业升级的影响························· 202

7.5

"十三五"期间交通基础设施建设对西北内陆三省两区

的经济效应分析································································206

7.6

本章小结···········································································211

第8章结论与展望······················································213

8.1

研究结论···········································································214

8.2

不足与展望·······································································219

附录A 新疆维吾尔自治区内交通点重要度·················· 222

附录B 宁夏回族自治区内交通点重要度····················· 230

附录C 青海省内交通点重要度··································· 237

附录

D

甘肃省内交通点重要度··································· 243

附录

E

三省两区内交通点重要度综合分析················· 250

附录

F

2014—2016年国家发改委有关铁路投资项目的

审批文件·························································260

参考文献······································································265